What happens to Putin’s use of nuclear weapons?

The AFP news agency got several analysts to assess what would happen if Russia resorted to nuclear weapons. They believe the goal is most likely to force the Ukrainians to surrender or negotiate and break the consensus of the Western countries.

They believed that the most likely use would be small nuclear bombs, 0.3 to 100 kilotons designed to cause limited damage in a specific area.

Mark Cancian, a military analyst at the international security firm CSIS, says Russia would send the strongest message by detonating a nuclear bomb over water or in the air over Ukraine.

That way, casualties would be low, but the bomb delivered an electromagnetic shock that turned off all electronics. „Small“ and „limited“ are relative words, but it should be borne in mind that the bomb that caused terrible damage in the Japanese city of Hiroshima was 15 kilotons.

A larger and more deadly attack on a military base or a populated city could weaken the international community’s solidarity against Putin, according to Jon Wolfsthal, a former White House nuclear expert.

It is clear that something needs to be done, but it is clear that the NATO countries do not want the war in Ukraine to turn into a nuclear world war. However, he does not rule out that such an attack was carried out by the Russians and would be evaluated as a sign of weakness. It is likely that some NATO countries do not want to use nuclear weapons at all, and thus the consensus can be broken.

Jon Wolfsthal urgently says that the response of the West reduces Russia’s military power and weakens Putin’s position, personally, politically and militarily.

Matthew Kroenig, an expert at the Atlantic Council, believes that the answer to a Russian nuclear attack is to provide the Ukrainians with more powerful weapons, missiles and jets, which would allow them to attack Russia.

Kroenig also thinks it is likely that countries such as India and China, which have been reluctant to impose pressure on Russia, will quickly change their minds after a nuclear attack.

In the conversation of Jón Ólafsson, professor and expert on Russian affairs, with RÚV on the day of Putin’s address, it was stated that the president spoke in such a way that Russia needs to defend itself from the West.

„The wording and the tone have become harsher and crueler, but I still don’t think there is a greater danger of the use of nuclear weapons than there has been,“ said Jón Ólafsson.